Romanian CFA analysts predict that Romania will adopt the euro currency in about eight years, according to a press release from the organization
Concerning the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the national economy, most respondents (over 56%) anticipate that it will be felt most by the second quarter of 2022.
“Since April 2020, additional questions have been added to the survey about the impact of the coronavirus crisis will have on the national economy, and the results for February 2021 speak most about when the economic impact the coronavirus will be most likely – most respondents (over 56%) anticipates that it will be felt by the second quarter of 2022; the national budget deficit for 2021 is anticipated at 7.4%; the evolution, in real terms of GDP in 2021 is expected to grow at 4.1% rate; public debt as a percentage of GDP will reach, in a 12-month horizon, over 52%; the respondents’ expectations are for Romania to adopt the euro in about 8 years “, the press release reads.
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The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (March 2022 / March 2021) predicted at an average value of 3.29%, it should be noted that 69% of survey participants estimate the increase in of the inflation rate.
Regarding the euro / leu exchange rate, over 87% of the survey participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months compared to the current value. Thus, the average value of anticipations for the six-month horizon is 4.9182 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average exchange rate is 4.9708 lei for one euro.
Translated by: O.H.