Agenția de rating Standard & Poor’s despre România: Criza politică, puțin probabil să stopeze consolidarea fiscală

Mihai Roman sept. 14, 2021 0 comentarii
agentie de rating, standard and poor, s&p

Agenția de rating Standard & Poor’s (S&P) anunță într-un comentariu că e puțin probabil ca evenimentele politice din România să stopeze consolidarea fiscală începută deja. S&P arată că nu vede ”riscuri iminente” la adresa planurilor pe termen scurt ale guvernului de reducere a deficitului bugetar.

S&P face o trecere în revistă a evenimentelor politice și arată că această criză a venit exact în momentul în care guvernul e pe punctul de a securiza fondurile europene din PNRR.

”Așteptările noastre, în scenariul de bază, sunt ca guvernul să încerce păstrarea capacității de funcționare pe termen scurt pentru a atrage finanțarea europeană. Adoptarea rectificării bugetare de săptămâna trecută indică faptul că executivul are capacitatea de a-și duce la îndeplinire politicile. Cu toate acestea, incertitudinea persistentă ar putea accentua riscurile fiscale pe termen mediu”, mai arată comentariul S&P.

Agenția de rating arată că creșterea economică ajută executivul Cîțu să gestioneze presiunea pe politica fiscală și arată că expansiunea PIB de 6,5% pe primul semestru a fost mai mare decât prognoza de 5% a agenției.

Prognozele agențiilor de rating sunt elemente-cheie pentru investitorii de pe piețele financiare care investesc în datoria publică a României.

Comentariul S&P integral:

Romania Political Events Unlikely To Stop Consolidation

âS&P Global Ratings said today that it does not expect imminent risks to Romania’s (BBB-/Stable/A-3) near-term fiscal consolidation plans following the resignation on Sept. 7, of USR Plus ministers from the government coalition. USR Plus’ withdrawal, following a series of policy clashes and intra-coalition tensions, will require Prime Minister Florin Citu to seek parliamentary reapproval for his now minority cabinet within 45 days. This comes at a time when the government is set to engage with the European authorities to secure funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility.

We assume, in our base case, that the government would aim to preserve its capacity to function over the short term in order to contract this funding, which we understand is ready to be disbursed. The adoption of Romania’s budget rectification for 2021 last week suggests that there is capacity to execute policy, in our view. That said, persistent uncertainty could accentuate fiscal risks over the medium term.

Separately, the USR Plus party filed a motion to censure Citu’s government but we understand the debate and vote have been delayed. This is the second time that confidence in the government has been questioned in just four months.

Aside from the ongoing votes of confidence, both parties will hold elections of their leadership over the coming month. This could spur a political re-set of coalition talks, somewhat complicating the political outlook.

For now, Romania’s rebounding economic growth is helping to mitigate pressure on the government’s fiscal position. The economy has already returned to its prepandemic output, expanding by 6.5% over the first half of 2021, outperforming our April forecast of 5% growth for the full year (see “Romania Outlook Revised To Stable From Negative On Decreasing Fiscal Risks; ‘BBB-/A-3’ Ratings Affirmed,” published April 16, 2021).

We forecast GDP growth at about 4.5% in 2022 and 2023, buoyed by EU and Next Generation EU grants and loans totaling 20% of Romania’s GDP between 2021 and 2026. Our current forecasts include a general government deficit of 7% of GDP in 2021, before gradually narrowing to 3% of GDP in 2024 supported by the government’s consolidation agenda and Romania’s recovering economy.

Nevertheless, should the political deadlock persist, it could disrupt progress on much-needed fiscal reform. We still believe that medium-term fiscal consolidation and a rebalancing of Romania’s budget structure, aided by successful absorption of EU financing, are key elements to stabilizing the country’s fiscal and external positions.

The next scheduled review of our ratings on Romania is on Oct. 15, 2021.

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