On Tuesday, the World Bank improved its estimates regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy, both for this year and for next year, is the world economy is expected to register in 2021 the strongest growth in the last 80 years.
According to the latest edition of the report on the global economic outlook, quoted by Agerpres, the World Bank estimates that Romania will record a GDP growth of 6% this year, a 2.5 percentage point above the January estimate, and for the following year a growth of 4.5%, 0.4 percentage points above previous estimates. For 2023, the World Bank forecasts economic growth of 3.9% for Romania.
The growth of the Romanian economy this year would be higher than that recorded in Europe and Central Asia as a whole (3.9%), but the World Bank warns that, at the regional level, the risks remain high, given the slow pace of the vaccination campaign, political uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
Globally, the World Bank has improved its growth forecast for this year by 1.5 percentage points to 5.6%, which means that the world economy will experience the strongest growth in the last 80 years. However, the international financial institution warns that many countries, especially the poor ones, are left behind and will need several years to return to pre-pandemic levels.
“Even though there are encouraging signs of a global recovery, the pandemic continues to cause inequality in populations in developing countries around the world,” said World Bank President David Malpass. According to him, coordinated efforts are needed globally to accelerate the distribution of vaccines and debt relief for low-income countries.
The World Bank report shows that the recovery will be uneven, given that the world’s major economies, especially the United States, are benefiting from the progress of the vaccination campaign and the stimulus programs. While among advanced economies, about 90% of them would return by 2022 to the per capita income they had before the pandemic, among emerging and developing countries only a third will achieve the same performance. As a result, the gap between the most advanced and the poorest economies in per capita income, which narrowed before the pandemic, will widen further.
The International Monetary Fund estimates, for 2021, a strong economic recovery in Romania, with a growth of the real Gross Domestic Product of 7 percent, while the forecast of the European Commission shows a growth of the Romanian economy by 5.1% in 2021 and by 4, 9% in 2022.
The National Commission for Strategy and Forecast revised upwards to 5% the estimate on the Gross Domestic Product growth for 2021.