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The National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting (CNSP) forecasts a 7% growth of the economy this year, in line with recent forecasts by the European Commission, Agerpres reports. Investment is expected to grow by 8.2% and the deficit will deepen in the coming years.
The CNSP has thus maintained the Gross Domestic Product growth estimate for this year, which it had advanced in its August forecast, but has lowered its estimates for next year from 4.9% to 4.6%.
According to the Projection of Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2021 – 2025, published by the CNSP, GDP growth is estimated at 5.3% in 2023, 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, all unchanged from the summer version.
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This year, the CNSP estimates GDP at 1,190 billion lei.
Final consumption is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2021, compared to a decline of 3.6% last year, with the advance moderating to 4.1% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, 4.4% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.
Investment (gross fixed capital formation) is expected to grow by 8.2% this year, 9.3% in 2022, 11.2% in 2023, 9% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025.
The trade deficit will widen in the coming years, rising to €23.5 billion in 2021 from €18.4 billion in the previous year and reaching €33.7 billion in 2025. Exports of goods are estimated at €73.1 billion this year, up 17.6%, and imports at 96.7 billion, up 20%.
The current account deficit will widen this year to 6.3% of GDP, from 5% in 2020, before falling slightly to 6.1% of GDP next year.
Inflation at the end of the year is estimated at 7.7%. The NBR projected annual CPI inflation at 7.5% in December 2021, the new projection 1.9 percentage points higher than the central bank’s August projection. For 2022, the CNSP expects inflation to fall to 4.7% by the end of the year.
The average lei/euro exchange rate is forecast at 4.92 this year, rising to 4.98 next year.
The average number of employees will increase slightly this year, by 1.4% to 5.104 million people, the number of unemployed will fall to 265,000 from 296,100 last year, and the unemployment rate in 2021 is estimated at 3%, down from 3.4% in 2020. For next year, the Forecast Commission estimates a continuation of the upward trend in the number of employees, to 5.2 million people, and a fall in the unemployment rate to 2.9% and the number of unemployed to 258,000 people.
Average net earnings are forecast at 3,467 lei/month in 2021, up 7.8% on the previous year, and at 3,775 in 2022 (up 8.9%).
According to the National Institute of Statistics’ signal estimates published on Tuesday, the Romanian economy’s growth slowed to 0.3% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, while compared to the same period last year, GDP growth was 7.2% on a gross basis and 8% on an adjusted basis. In the first nine months of this year, GDP grew by 7.1% on a gross basis and by 6.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the same period last year.
The European Commission has recently revised downwards to 7% its estimate for Romania’s economic growth this year, after having forecast a 7.4% advance in July.