Romania’s population will decrease to 13.65 million people in 2070 the European Commission predicts

Coronavirus, covid, batrani, pensionari, masca Sursa foto: Inquam Photos/George Călin

Romania’s population will decrease to 13.65 million people by 2070, from 19.35 million people in 2019, according to Eurostat data quoted in a comprehensive report by the European Commission on the demographic evolution of our country. The new figures are much more pessimistic than a country report published by the Commission in February 2020, which estimated that Romania’s population will decline to 15 million by 2070.

The Commission estimates that the dependency ratio of older people will double from 28.6% in 2019 to 56.9% in 2070, due to the fact that the generation of “decrees” ( Romanians born in the late 1960s and 1970s) will reach retirement age, but also as a result of rising life expectancy.  The dependency ratio of the elderly is the ratio between the number of elderly people (people 64 years and older) and the working-age population (15-64 years) expressed per 100 people.

For men, life expectancy at birth is estimated to increase by 11.6 years, from 71.9 years in 2019 to 83.5 years in 2070. For women, an increase in life expectancy at birth is estimated at 9 years. years, from 79.5 years (in 2019) to 88.5 years (in 2070). Life expectancy at age 65 will increase by 7 years, both for men and women, between 2019 and 2070. According to the data, Romania is among the top countries in terms of increasing life expectancy at birth.

The Commission also points out that one of the main causes for the aging population in Romania is the low fertility rate. In 2015, the fertility rate was 1.76 children per woman, below the optimal level of replacement. The level estimated by Eurostat for the fertility rate in Romania in 2070 is 1.89. Although the young population is declining due to the steady decline in the number of women of childbearing age, there are still some positive signs of rising fertility rates, the institution says.

Pension spending will peak in 2050

Looking ahead to the coming years, the European Commission warns that the resources of the public pension system will dwindle compared to the spending needs. However, this trend of the constant increase in pension expenditure will be reversed after 2040, when the volume of new entries into the pension system will stabilize. As a result, pension spending will stop rising. The pension system will be balanced also due to the subsequent disappearance of the baby boomer generation. It is estimated that the generation of “decrees” will enter the pension system around 2030 and will start coming out in 2040.

According to the Commission, pension spending, which stands at 8.1% of the gross domestic product in 2019, will reach a high of 14.8% in 2050, falling to 11.9% in 2070.

Increasing the pension point has reduced the risk of poverty for retirees

The European Commission also points out that pension increases in recent years have led to a lower risk of poverty for the elderly than the average population.

According to the EC, in the period 2016-2020, pensions increased by about 65%, after the pension point increased from 871 lei in 2016 to 1,442 lei in September 2020.

Sursa foto: Inquam Photos/George Călin

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