The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has significantly improved its estimates on Romania’s economic evolution in 2021, forecasting a 6% increase this year, according to a report published on Tuesday by the international financial institution and quoted by Agerpres. In September, the EBRD forecast an growth of only 3%.
According to the EBRD, the three countries in the Southeast European region (Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) were seriously affected by the Covid-19 crisis in 2020, with an average contraction of 5.2%, the largest of all regions in which The EBRD operates. However, recovery is currently taking place in all three countries in the Southeast Europe region, especially in Romania, so that for the whole of 2021, the EBRD expects a growth of 5.2% at the regional level. . This is the largest upward revision of the EBRD’s growth forecasts, by almost two percentage points, compared to estimates published in September last year.
“Romania went through the Covid-19 crisis better than initially estimated, with a contraction in GDP of 3.9% in 2020. Overall, private consumption had the most significant decline in 2020, of 4.9%, while sustained investment and improved exports have made a positive contribution to growth. In the last two quarters, the economy has grown at a robust pace, as containment measures have had a limited impact on economic activity… The current boom in the economy is expected to lead to a 6% increase in GDP in 2021. For 2022, the Facility Return and Resilience would give a significant boost to investment, while private consumption and improved exports could translate into economic growth of up to 5%. The main downside risk to these forecasts is related to the evolution of the pandemic “, the EBRD claims.
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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) was established in 1991 to invest in former communist bloc states and help them make the transition to a market economy. In recent years, the EBRD has begun to shift its focus from the former Soviet bloc to North Africa and the Middle East.
Since the beginning of this year, the EBRD has signed investment projects worth a total of 127 million euros in Romania, after last year it provided financing of 340 million euros for the Romanian economy.
The National Commission for Strategy and Forecast estimates a 5% increase in Gross Domestic Product in 2021.